By Lee Sun-ho
Until the beginning of the 21st century, it was rather uncommon to hear about acronyms that represented groups of countries, except for ABCDE (Argentine, Brazil, Chile, Dominican Republic and Ecuador in Latin America) just in alphabetical order.
``BRICs,” also known as the ``Big Four,” is a grouping acronym that refers to the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, coined in a 2001 Goldman Sachs report. The four countries, combined, account for more than a quarter of the world’s land area and more than 40 percent of the world’s population.
Each of the BRIC countries was predicted to become one of the six largest economic powers by surpassing traditional economic powers, including Germany, England, France and Italy, by 2050. There is no argument that their growth potential is important and that their political impact is equally rising as more time goes by.
In 2010, the Business Insider had some interesting insight on going beyond the BRICs to the ``MAVINS” _ six surging countries, namely, Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria and South Africa. The combined economies of the MAVINS could easily equal 60 percent of America’s current economy by as early as 2020, over 200 percent by 2050, and then continue robustly thereafter.
The six nations are uniquely positioned to benefit from global economic growth via their relative advantages in natural resources as well as situated to offer enormous opportunities for expanding niche markets.
While the BRICs still steal the hype and limelight, the MAVINS are less appreciated yet exhibit enormous potential.
Also in 2010 ``PIIGS,” an acronym was used to refer to the five eurozone nations, which were considered the most vulnerable to financial crisis: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Since the five nations use the euro as their currency, they could not employ an independent monetary policy to conduct economic reform until they were saved by euro stabilization packages.
In a repeat feat, Goldman Sachs recently designated a new and interesting grouping acronym with MIKT, denoting Mexico, Indonesia, Korea and Turkey, countries which possess the engine of growth potential without relying too much on G7 nations.
Both Mexico and Indonesia, also included in the MAVINS, are likely to show faster growth, better demographics and declining corruption, more fitting for the super-charged image that the group has come to represent.
According to a paper published in 2006, Korea could be a country comparable to one of the BRICs, but was excluded initially, as the nation was considered already developed and had joined the OECD.
Last year, Korea became the ninth largest trading power in the global village grossing $893.1 billion and recording $41.7 billion in trade surplus. But it remains an uncertain variable whether the Korean Peninsula will remain divided between the South and the North and exposed to constant security issues stemming from military hostility, or become a reunited country.
Turkey has the world’s 15th largest GDP, and is a founding member of the OECD and G20 economies. Turkey has gradually opened up its markets through economic reforms, reducing government control on foreign trade and investment, and privatizing state enterprises.
Many of the existing economic powers are now in a state of continuous decline due to a shrinking work force and swelling retirees, leading to demographic disadvantages. By 2050 they will be replaced by fast-rising emerging countries primed for robust growth thanks mainly to their abundant working-age populations.
It is quite unpredictable which of these acronyms will have the most lasting relevance in this rapidly-changing global economic power map. Time will show if any or all of them are just a fleeting coinage, depending on the countries’ performances.
The writer is an outside director of KunWha Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in Seoul. He can be reached at kexim2@unitel.co.kr.
<국문요지>
경제대국 머리글자 복합어의 변천과정
I. 배경
1. crossword puzzle처럼 보이는 국가별 머리글자를 대문자로 표현하는 복합어는 20세 기부터 원용되어 왔음
2. 21세기 들어와 지구촌의 경제력을 대변하는 시대상을 가변적으로 반영하는 경제대국 복합어들을 사용하는 추세로 탈바꿈되어 가고 있음.
II. 복합어의 연혁 순 사례들
1. ABCDE (알젠친, 브라질, 칠레, 도미니카공화국 및 에콰도르) - 중남미국가들의 단순 한 아파벳 순의 나열로 - 21세기에 이전에도 원용
2. BRICs (브라질, 러시아, 인도 및 중국) - 인구 및 국토면적으로 보아 성장잠재력이나 정치적인 입김이 막강하여 2050년에는 독일, 영국, 프랑스, 이태리 등 전통강국들을 제치고 세계 3대~6대 경제대국들로 탈바꿈 할 전망 - 2001 골드만삭스 작명
3. MAVINS (멕시코, 호주, 월남, 인니, 나이지리아 및 남아프리카공화국) - 경제 규모의 크기가 2020년은 미국의 60%, 2050년은 미국의 200% 정도로 성장하며 상 대적인 제품생산 우위와 거대한 틈새시장 확대가 계속될 전망 - 2010 비즈니스 인싸 이더 추천
4. PIIGS (폴투갈, 애란, 이태리, 희랍 및 서반아) - 유로존 (유로 사용 권) 재정위기에 휘말리어 단일통화로 구제금융을 제공받게 된 국가군 - 2010부터 사용된 복합어
5. MIKT (멕시코, 인니, 한국 및 토이기) - (가) 멕시코와 (나) 인니는 MAVINS에도 포함되며 고도성장, 노동력 개선, 부패축소, 국가이미지 향상 등 의 공통점으로, (다) 한국은 OECD회원국인 동시 국제통상강국으로 BRICs에 비 견될 단계에 왔으며 (남북통일 전망은 아직 미지수), (라) 토이기는 GDP 15위국으 로 발돋음 한 OECD 및 G-20 회원국으로 무역투자 규제완화, 공기업민영화 등의 개혁을 통한 시장개방 추세 진입 등을 높이 평가하여 장기적으로 경제대국이 될 수 있는 요인으로 꼽음 - 2010 골드만삭스 신조어.
III. 각종 변수 영향
1. 세계의 경제력을 반영하는 국가별 머리글자 복합어의 변천은 긴 안목에서 유효 노동 력의 향배에 따라 좌우되어 2050년에는 이에 영향을 받아 성장국가와 신흥국가를 구분하는 척도가 될 것으로 보임
2. 특히 BRICs -> MAVINS -> MIKT 등의 경제대국별 머리글자 복합어의 파생과 회 자의 진행은 장기적 시각으로 보면 각종 변수에 따라 제행무상과 상전벽해라는 변천 과정에서 변화무쌍할 것으로 예견 됨. -이상- |
華峯 한화림 축하드리며 
